By: Jay Carizo
In Philippine politics, alliances are like pie crusts — made to be broken (and, in most cases, eaten). This is also true in Albay– alliances last only as long as they’re convenient. Back in 2022, Joey Salceda and Noel Rosal forged an alliance that toppled the multi-term-governor, Al Francis Bichara. Rosal ran for governor while Salceda, the ever-calculating congressman, gunned for another term in the House. Their names trended together, and their votes did, too—almost perfectly.
It was almost perfect that a deep dive into the numbers shows a 0.997 correlation between their votes in the municipalities where both had data. In simpler terms, if a voter chose Salceda, chances are he or she also voted for Rosal. That’s not just a coincidence. That’s a tandem in everything but name.
But 2025 has a plot twist: they’re now running against each other.
That’s right. Congressman Salceda is eyeing the governor’s seat because it is his last term in Congress and he thinks it was a waste supporting Rosal as the latter was disqualified by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) for violating the Omnibus Election Code in relation with the disbursement and release of government funds during the prohibited period before a regular election — a ruling affirmed by the Supreme Court. But Rosal is holding on tight. He thinks he can still go back and perhaps be the Frivaldo of Albay. (Well, Juan Frivaldo was twice declared by the Supreme Court as an American citizen and thus ineligible to run. However, the people of Sorsogon kept voting him for Governor that the Supreme Court gave in.)
Hence, with Salceda keen on the gubernatorial seat and Rosal trying to prove something, what was once a strategic pairing has become a full-blown political rivalry.
This isn’t just about personalities clashing. It’s about machinery. Back in 2022, Rosal likely benefited from Salceda’s campaign infrastructure—the barangay networks, the logistics, the volunteers, the messaging. But now that the Salceda engine is powering a different vehicle, Rosal is running on half a tank.
Rosal is Fighting on Too Many Fronts
Sun Tzu, that ancient military genius, warned: “He who defends everything defends nothing.” That might as well be the Rosal’s campaign memo.
Rosal isn’t just facing a challenger in Salceda. He’s also juggling multiple legal battles tied to his disqualification case. He’s up against online trolls spreading fake news, and worst of all—voter hesitation. Because if there’s one thing Albayanos don’t want, it’s to waste their vote.
And they have good reason to worry. The COMELEC has already declared that it won’t proclaim candidates who are facing unresolved disqualification cases, even if they win. So while Rosal may still have loyalists, many voters are now asking: “Will our votes even count?”
What About the Voters?
As discussed in a 2024 article by Biklish, voters are visibly torn. Rosal’s reputation as a local executive—especially in Legazpi—still earns him points. But reputation alone isn’t enough when people fear that a court decision could erase the outcome.
Worse, those once committed to the Rosal camp might be reconsidering, especially with Salceda offering a viable, legal, and politically sharp alternative.
Salceda’s Calculated Comeback?
Let’s not forget—Salceda isn’t just another candidate. He’s a calculative strategist known for policy depth, statistical obsession, and political survival skills that would impress even Frank Underwood. Aside from serving as an undefeated Congressiona District Representative for Districts 2 and 3, he also served as a three-term governor of Albay.
His move to return as Albay’s governor in 2025 isn’t just a random whim. It’s calculated, likely backed by numbers, and probably greenlit by political allies who see an opening: a wounded Rosal with legal baggage and shaky support.
Coattails Don’t Grow Back
In 2022, Rosal stood tall—but he may have been standing on someone else’s shoulders. Now, that someone has stepped aside and is asking voters to pick him instead.
The 2025 Albay election isn’t just another local race. It’s a story of shifting alliances, statistical truths, court drama, and the all-too-familiar uncertainty that haunts Philippine elections.
Rosal may still have heart, history, and a base. But without Salceda’s support, he’ll need to prove—this time for real—that he can stand on his own two feet.
